How Fast is Fast Production for Model Rolling Stock?

The pride of my  N scale locomotive fleet are my two Fox Valley Models BNSF GE ES44C4s, #6600 and #6654. Why? Because they are the most current cutting edge locomotives that BNSF rosters. (If I were modeling HO scale, I'd still be waiting on an ES44C4 model, but that's another blog entry).

When you are modeling the present day, even down to the present minute, it's important that the model train manufacturers produce (enough) of the current range of locomotives and rolling stock to fill your layout. Consider that GE built its first ES44C4s in early 2009. FVM announced its ES44C4 model in October 2011 and delivered them to sellers some time thereafter. So from GE building the actual thing to FVM delivering an N scale model took just under three years. 

Fox Valley Models ES44C4 Announcement

I have no industry insider insight but I am sure that like most businesses, model train manufacturer product managers survey the real railroad scene, take customer feedback, and project interest for any potential offering. I'm sure that takes weeks to months. There may be licensing issues with a host railroad or locomotive/rolling stock manufacturer. The model train manufacturer has to do up its schematics for an N scale version. Then the manufacturer has to spool up production in China. The Chinese factories have to produce and those factories might be backlogged. Then the finish model has to find shipment to North America.

Model train manufacturers also can incur some risk. What if the ES44C4 had flopped? This calls to mind the late 90s fascination with 6000 horsepower locomotives. Broadway Limited Imports released the GE AC6000CW in HO Scale in the mid-2000s and in real-life, those disappointing units were on their way to the scrap heap. BLI was reduced to try and cash in on the model GEVO rush by producing AC6000CW in fantasy liveries similar to the ES44s that other manufacturers were doing up. This risk might make model manufacturers want to wait before committing to producing something brand new in the world of real railroading.

From a modeler's perspective, three years from introduction in real life to model form is outstanding. There were already ES44ACs and ES44DCs in N scale that a modern BNSF N scaler could utilize in the meantime. In addition, BNSF initially only ordered 25 of the model, making them rare system-wide. Now, subsequent orders has pushed the total of ES44C4s to several hundred, meaning they are no longer rare. But now, in 2014, you can get an FVM model of the ES44C4.

Fox Valley Models and KATO's production of the Norfolk Southern heritage units was even more speedy. Consider that most of the NS units were built in 2012 and now in 2014, you can get just about every single ES44AC or SD70ACe in model form. Of course, both FVM and KATO already had the production molds for the locomotives so it was a matter of just producing different paint jobs. Of course, FVM and KATO knew that there would  be a huge market for NS' heritage program, which has been a success on all levels.

One of the reasons I lost interest in my teenage 1987 N scale layout was that I could read Trains magazine and see EMD's latest offerings in the GP60 and SD60 but there were no N scale models of them and none on the horizon. By 1987, both locomotives had been on the market for two and three years, respectively. 

Let's imagine I had continued on with that layout. How long would I have had to wait to introduce both locomotives onto the layout? Try early 2001 for Atlas' SD60 and early 2004 for Life-Like's GP60! By 1988 or 1989, it would have been near impossible to model a wide range of modern operations in N scale.

Even if I had waited all those years for the GP60s and SD60s, by the early 2000s, SD60s were no longer top road power for high priority trains and GP60s were relegated to yard service or locals. So even their arrival in model form would not help that much to replicate modern operations.

Unique or rare locomotives like those that power East Coast commuter trains will probably never see model form, except maybe in brass. Model train manufacturers could not assure themselves of a big enough market for them. So a modeler is never going to have access to models of everything out there in 2014. I realize that. But 2014 does seem to be a golden era for manufacturers releasing a representative sample of current technology. Hopefully this continues or else my own model train universe won't move forward.